War in Afghanistan (2001-201X)

In seems clear that recent events in Afghanistan have reached a turning point. While much of the debate is now focused on whether or not the Americans will dramatically increase troop deployment, there has been a broader recognition (even by the Americans) that the war cannot continue forever, and at some point an exit strategy will have to be defined. Many NATO countries have already set an exit date, and while the Americans haven't, they have recognized they will need to set one in the next couple of years, as they did with Iraq. In other words, the war is essentially over, except the casualties will continue for a number of additional years.

The war started eight years ago, and the strategy and approach has not changed much during those eight years. After the beginning of the Iraq war, in fact, there was little focus on Afghanistan for many years. What, then, makes the present different? Several factors are involved and will be listed below.

First, there is the recent (and ongoing) Afghan election. The widespread fraud (which is still being investigated) has cast even more doubt on the legitimacy of the Karzai administration. This administration was already widely viewed as corrupt and incompetent, and it includes many warlords involved in the drug trade. The level (and blatancy) of the fraud, however, seems to have surprised everyone. It is still unknown if a runoff election will be required and if it is, this might have to wait for spring. The result is that the legitimacy of the foreign-backed government is now more strongly questioned by the people of Afghanistan. Perhaps even more importantly, the legitimacy of the government is also questioned by the people of the United States and other NATO countries.

Secondly, the local insurgency has gained much strength over the past couple years and has led to record numbers of casualties among the foreign forces. In addition to gaining more strength, the Taliban now control 80 percent of the country and have significant influence in 17 percent, according to a study by ICOS:

Their influence of the Taliban has also extended to the North, where they previously had been mostly absent. This puts more pressure on foreign troops (such as the Germans) who have not taken large combat roles. This also threatens the northern supply lines, which had previously been fairly secure.

Thirdly, as a result of the election, the growing insurgency, increasing casualties, and the length of the war, public support for the war has declined even further. In most european countries and Canada, there is a strong majority opinion in favour of withdrawing troops. This opinion has now increased further, and in the United States, for the first time, a majority of Americans now oppose the mission.

As a result of the above factors, it seems likely the US will need to articulate some type of exit plan, probably in less than two years. This will then need to be followed with a specific date for the withdrawal of troops, as was done in Iraq. This will need to happen whether or not President Obama decides to send more troops. In fact, the pressure to produce an exit plan would likely increase in that case, and one might be needed in order to convince other members of his party to agree to a troop increase.

The end of the war now seems inevitable. The leaders of most of the western countries involved have admitted as much. The main issue remaining for most leaders is how to position and frame the issue for the public. This is similar to the end of the Vietnam war where most of the focus was on how to "withdraw with dignity". The other issue, of course, is how many more casualties there will be on both sides.

I will make a couple of predictions here:

1. The war will officially end, as hinted at in the title of this article, within 10 years.
2. The Taliban will regain power in much of the country, but perhaps not the whole country