Future of Space Exploration

Human spaceflight, and space exploration, took off dramatically half a century ago. Shortly after World War II, during the height of the cold war, there was an explosion in technology, practical knowledge and experience in launching spacecraft and operating in space. The technological advances required during WWII were further built upon during the rivalry of the cold war and led to rapid and dramatic advances, far beyond most people's expectations. In the past couple decades, however, we have lost much of our practical knowledge and ability to explore space, as well as the drive to do so.

When President Kennedy first made his speech in 1961 declaring that the US would land on the moon by the end of the decade, few thought it possible, including many at NASA itself. Yet, through competition with the USSR, determination, sacrifice, and strong funding, technological leaps were made on an almost yearly basis leading to a triumphant landing by Apollo 11, on July 20, 1969. Kennedy's outrageous goal had been met.

After the six successful missions to land on the moon (and the safe recovery of the failed Apollo 13 mission), however, despite many advances made in technology and considerable advances in our scientific knowledge, humans have never since left the orbit of the Earth. The last time we did so was in 1972, during the final Apollo mission, Apollo 17. That was 37 years ago.

The reason for this has not been a lack of technology, but a lack of will (and funding). Some have suggested that if the Soviets, after losing the moon race, had immediately announced their intention to beat the US to Mars, there is little doubt a successful Mars landing, by either nation or both, could have been achieved by 1985, or even earlier. Indeed, NASA was already actively planning for a Mars mission during the Apollo years, but this was abandoned when Apollo was terminated. The Soviets were planning missions as well, but also shelved them after NASA did.

NASA has recently decided to return to the moon, officially setting a date of 2020 for the first mission, with the subsequent goal of going to Mars by 2037. Unofficially, however, these dates appear ready to slip. These missions would involve the Constellation program, which includes the Ares I rocket for launching humans and the Ares V rocket for launching cargo. The Ares I rocket, with the Orion capsule, is also intended to replace the Space Shuttle, which is due to be retired next year.

The Orion is not scheduled to launch until at least 2015, which means that unless the Shuttle program is extended, the US will have zero ability to launch humans into space during this period, and will need to rely on the Russian Soyuz spacecraft in order to send crew to the ISS. As the International Space Station is currently scheduled to cease operations in 2015, it is possible it will never again be visited by a US spacecraft after 2010.

A recent review of NASA, which comes after a recent change in the US administration, suggests that there may not simply be delays in the already unambitious targets, but some parts of the program could even be cancelled, which would make the whole issue of target dates academic.

Other countries, such as Russia, China and even India have also proposed manned missions to the Moon and Mars, though these are somewhat speculative at this point. Perhaps the most serious proposal has been from Russia, which has suggested it could send a crew of four or five to Mars as early as 2016 to 2020. The European Space Agency has indicated some interest in this, and it is possible there could be a joint EU-Russian mission. However, there has been no official blessing or funding for this proposal.

It therefore seems extremely unlikely that any manned mission by any nation, or group of nations, will expand human space exploration any further than the first moon landing in 1969, within the next 30 years. That would be a total of 70 years without any real progress. Unfortunately, beyond 30 years, our ability to launch humans, or even robots or satellites, may be more limited than today.

We have two main crises facing the planet today, which are likely to significantly increase in the next few decades. First, there is global warming which is already having a large impact on the world, with much more serious consequences to follow. Failure to address the problem could lead to significant economic and political disruption. At the same time, if we do move swiftly to address the problem, we will need to impose constraints on carbon emissions and some types of economic activity. Neither situation is conducive to the expensive endeavour of human space exploration.

The second crisis is that of peak oil. Most geologists think we are either at, or very close to, the peak of oil production. This does not mean that oil will run out, just that each year there will be a bit less than the year before. This is something the world has not experienced before, as oil supplies have been continually growing (except for brief wars or embargoes) during the past 100 years. This could lead to dramatic price increases and shortages. Again, this is not a situation in which human space exploration can be easily pursued.

Based on the above, and the current state of human space exploration, then, the conclusion seems to be that humanity is unlikely to expand space exploration significant in the next century, or perhaps longer. It is possible we might witness a one-off Mars mission, but even that is looking less likely as each year passes. Perhaps in a few hundred years, if the environment has recovered and there is a smaller population, these efforts might continue. Or perhaps by then, we'll have too few resources left to easily try again.