The Future of Pakistan

Recent history in Pakistan seems to bear a similarity to events in Iran during the rule of the Shah. The recent leadership of Pakistan has been similar in several ways to that of the Shah. In both countries the leaders were strongly backed by the United States. Both were involved in repressing or attacking their own people. In Iran, this led the revolution of 1979 which created an Islamic Republic. Could something similar happen in Pakistan?

In 1953, the democratically elected leader of Iran, Mohammed Mosaddeq, was replaced by the Shah in a US and British led coup. The US and their CIA provided funding and support to the Shah during his resign, and helped to establish the dreaded SAVAK secret police force. SAVAK tortured and executed thousands during the Shah's rule, and imprisoned many more.

Opium in Afghanistan

By examining the history of Afghanistan and of opium production generally, we can get a better idea of what the causes might be of rises and falls in its production during the 20th century and up to today. This article will discuss the origins of the opium trade, and will examine which circumstances in Afghanistan have been favourable or unfavourable to its production. This should make it possible to predict what might happen with Afghan opium production in the future.

Copenhagen

The UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen is less than 50 days away. The success or failure of this meeting is likely to have a large historical impact. A strong international agreement on emissions reduction is necessary, but not sufficient, to avert the most serious consequences of global warming. A strong accord, with real teeth, can give us a good starting point for further agreements down the road, and can begin to start real global reductions in CO2 emissions (not just a reduction in their growth.) If, however, no strong agreement is reached, or if the talks completely collapse, runaway climate change would seem inevitable.

Nobel Facepalm

The Nobel Peace Prize has always been controversial, but I suspect the award of the 2009 prize to Barack Obama is likely to be one of the most controversial. The award doesn't seem to make much sense considering President Obama hasn't actually done anything to warrant the prize, as many have already pointed out. I strongly suspect, as well, that this award will do nothing positive for Obama himself, or for his administration.

The Future of Israel

It appears that a turning point in the history of the state of Israel may have been reached in recent months and years. A number of different factors have come together to suggest that traditional peace plans, such as the "road map for peace" proposal, with separate and independent states for Israel and Palestine is looking less and less likely to occur. The political situation, and the situation on the ground, points more and more to a future binational state.

First, there is the recent election in Israel of Benjamin Netanyahu as leader of a right-wing coalition. The new government is generally supportive of increasing settlements in the west bank and is hesitant about support for a Palestinian state. Despite intense negotiations with the Americans, no agreement has been reached on halting settlements, and even a temporary freeze, limited to certain areas only, has not been agreed to.

War in Afghanistan (2001-201X)

In seems clear that recent events in Afghanistan have reached a turning point. While much of the debate is now focused on whether or not the Americans will dramatically increase troop deployment, there has been a broader recognition (even by the Americans) that the war cannot continue forever, and at some point an exit strategy will have to be defined. Many NATO countries have already set an exit date, and while the Americans haven't, they have recognized they will need to set one in the next couple of years, as they did with Iraq. In other words, the war is essentially over, except the casualties will continue for a number of additional years.

The war started eight years ago, and the strategy and approach has not changed much during those eight years. After the beginning of the Iraq war, in fact, there was little focus on Afghanistan for many years. What, then, makes the present different? Several factors are involved and will be listed below.

Welcome

Welcome to the Watching History blog. The main goal of this blog will be to comment on current and recent events with an attempt to put them into an historical context. In some cases, there will be an effort to identify events that might be considered historically significant by future generations. Of course, since no one knows the future, this will be somewhat speculative, but sometimes our past can provide some clues and suggestions in order to assist in this effort.