Predictions for 2010

Since this is a site that concerns itself with historical trends, I feel somewhat obligated to make a set of predictions for the coming year. Below I will list five relatively specific predictions for 2010. Next year, we will return to analyze how accurate (or inaccurate) they were. Without further ado, here are the predictions:

1. Space Exploration

NASA will complete its remaining shuttle missions successfully, without accident, though with the possibility of one or two being postponed to 2011. Though it may receive a small increase, NASA will continue to suffer from budget problems, and plans to return to the moon will continue to be delayed. The prospects for the future of space exploration will not improve.

Relative Beauty

The famous expression says "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder". And while there is undoubtedly a subjective factor in the perception of beauty, it is much more socially and culturally defined than many believe. Different societies, throughout the world, and throughout history, have held many different views of the "ideal" female form, and this ideal is generally defined by the dominant social class, and almost always by men.

Why the focus on only female beauty? Throughout the vast majority of history, women have had few or no rights. They usually did not have the ability to make choices, whether about a mate, their own bodies, their profession or anything else. It was generally men who made the decisions, either as fathers or husbands, and it is they who determined (for themselves) the value of women. Art and literature were primarily made by and for men. While male beauty was certainly recognized (see many ancient Greek statues, for example, or the work of Michelangelo), this was primarily independent of gender relations.

The Age of Oil

The Age of Oil will likely turn out to be one of the most important historical periods in human history. The end of this Age may also be as important to the future of our species as the end of the Age of Dinosaurs was to the future of mammals. The entire basis of our modern civilization is built on oil and other fossil fuels. It has enabled the industrial revolution, a massive increase in population, and our current standard of living in the West, as well as our extravagant levels of consumption. One way or another, the passing of this Age will change us irrevocably.

The idea of peak oil is a relatively simple one. As with all non-renewable resources, there is only a finite amount of oil in the ground. There must therefore come a point when we have reached a maximum in the rate of extraction of this resource. This is not about running out, but rather reaching a limit on how much we can produce in a given year. This is not controversial, it logically follows for any finite resource. The debate around the issue of peak oil usually involves questions about when the peak will come, and what the consequences of this will be.